POLITICAL & COMMERCIAL INTELLIGENCE

We help companies affected by political change. To access our political and commercial intelligence service, email GUIDE’s Chief Executive on greig@theguideconsultancy.com


We don’t need no legislation

It’s widely accepted that Brexit will consume the Government’s legislative agenda. However, that does not mean its domestic policies are on ice. Instead, the Government will get businesses to do the things it doesn’t have time to create laws for. Whitehall will require companies supplying the public sector to meet an increasing array of new conditions as part of their contracts, with each one supporting a different element of the Government’s domestic social policy agenda. As well as being a cost-effective option (for the Government, at least), this approach allows Whitehall to get companies to deliver social change – without ever having to bring a Bill to Parliament. 

Cyber Essentials gets more, well, essential

The Government has confirmed it will require more of its suppliers to hold a Cyber Essentials certificate as a condition of doing business with the public sector. The requirement already applies to companies that handle sensitive data, but it will be rolled out to other private sector suppliers – and to companies in the supply chain of large firms that hold major public sector contracts.

The Government will ask for more women on boards

The Government continues to mitigate its funding issues by asking businesses to deliver its social policy agenda.

The Business Minister has just written to the 350 largest UK firms asking them to publish a break-down of staff by race and pay. Coming after the apprenticeship levy (which starts next week) and before a push to get more women on boards over the summer, this latest measure is part of the Government’s wider strategy of “social policy by procurement”.

Companies that supply the public sector are going to have to meet a growing list of criteria, beyond their core competence, if they want to win major contracts.

Institute of Direction

The IoD laid on an event looking at post-Brexit customs arrangements this week, which covered some of the same technical issues we’ve been highlighting for clients. Rules of Origin and Operational Customs Compliance will become increasingly familiar terms for manufacturers with an international trade or supply chain – and it’s worth looking at the different tariff arrangements (whether EU, FTA or WTO) for “finished” goods and “parts to be assembled”. The short and long of it is that many companies will still have an opportunity to work profitably through the new conditions, whatever they are.

Being industrious in the Industrial Strategy

Whether under EU or WTO rules, there are limits to what a modern Government can do in terms of ‘picking winners’. Measures that potentially benefit the whole economy – while still having a disproportionate effect in targeted areas – are easier to get through. That’s part of the reason why investment in skills and digital feature so heavily in the Industrial Strategy and why they will become ever more important in public sector procurement.

Softly does it

Even before Wednesday, the EU27 had started to take a slightly softer line on Brexit, with new emphasis on a ‘friendly’ and ‘constructive’ negotiation. That’s not to say talks will be easy, but we are coming towards the end of the pure bluster stage. Interestingly, there’s also a realistic chance that our interlocutors’ objectives could be a moveable feast, as growing economic, social and political problems on the continent take hold.

The real plan for #IndyRef2

Business leaders who run major operations in Scotland tell me they received a call from a Holyrood Minister shortly after Nicola Sturgeon announced plans for IndyRef2. The Scottish Minister wanted to sound out local business opinion on the prospect of another vote. That’s fair enough – what’s more interesting, is the Scottish Minister told the businessmen the SNP does not expect or want any vote to be held before Brexit is completed. This is a markedly different line to the one used in public.

Carbon dating: the energy industry post-Brexit

While carbon pricing is currently set by the EU Emissions Trading System, the Government will move to a new ‘total carbon price and specific tax rate’ from 2021-22. Details will be made public in the Autumn Budget, but this is already one area where there is a clear willingness to move away from the status quo post-Brexit.

Brexit (research &) development

The Government will change the R&D Expenditure Credit in a bid to encourage companies’ investment in qualifying areas. For a number of reasons, R&D relief falls outside EU state aid rules (and outside WTO state aid rules), so we expect to see more effort being put into this kind of measure, as it can be launched before Brexit and then, if necessary, ramped up afterwards.

Risky business?

A consultation announced in the Budget concerns HMRC’s review of risk profiling for large companies. The Government wants to introduce stronger compliance rules, partly for their own merit, and partly in anticipation of more public services being managed by the private sector. Major suppliers to Government will want to keep on top of both the review and its effect on post-contract scrutiny.


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