POLITICAL & COMMERCIAL INTELLIGENCE

We help companies affected by political change. To access our political and commercial intelligence service, email GUIDE’s Chief Executive on greig@theguideconsultancy.com


27SEP18: TABLES ARE TURNING ON BREXIT

In the UK, it’s not fashionable to look across the Channel to see what the EU27 are saying. That’s a shame, as people might recognise a familiar refrain: EU27 sources now say their governments do not want to be seen preparing for a no-deal outcome, because they don’t want the UK to think it’s viable – but they know that also means the EU27 would not be ready for it, so there’s extra pressure to avoid one.

26SEP18: THE EU AFTER BREXIT

Regardless of what shape Brexit takes, the combined GDP of the non-euro member states will fall from 38% of the eurozone GDP to barely 16% when the UK leaves. This will fundamentally change the EU’s approach to policies on macroeconomics, regulation and even issues like immigration, which will persist after March. It’s also worth noting that EU27 figures taking the hardest line in the Brexit talks are probably storing up trouble for themselves, as a workable deal would undermine their prophecies of doom, while an economic hit would feed continental populists.

25SEP18: DEFENCE AND BREXIT

This week, the MoD published three papers regarding the UK’s military cooperation with France. The MoD describes France as “our most important European Ally” and the papers reflect HMG’s renewed drive to highlight both the security and industrial benefits of continuing cooperation between the UK and EU27 after March 2019. The timing and nature of these publications is instructive on what is being discussed behind closed doors over the Brexit table.

21SEP18: PREDICTING BREXIT

Back at the start of July, we reported EU sources telling us "the EU27 now plans to allow the Commission to continue to push HMG for as many concessions as possible, with no intention of member states ‘stepping in’ to encourage a more conciliatory approach". We also detailed what those concessions would be and how the EU is really preparing for March 2019. Brexit is often presented as a series of dramatic twists, but those turns are predictable - if you know where to look.

20SEP18: BREXIT AND TRADE

In some scenarios, HMG is planning to distribute haulage permits according to applicants’ previous cross-border trading record – so permits are given to those who may use them most, first. This has significant implications for both hauliers and the corporate clients that rely on them.

19SEP18: BREXIT MEANS…

If you look in the right place, it is increasingly possible to identify common factors across any potential Brexit scenario – making the final outcome more discernible. We expect recent discussions on the differences between regulatory and customs issues, as well as issues that can and will be addressed at a bilateral level, to become public over the next 10 days.

18SEP18: THE FUTURE OF TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE SPENDING

HMG has published the DfT Science Advisory Council’s Position Statement on Automation and Connectivity in Transport Infrastructure Construction. In the Statement BIM, modular construction, and 3D construction are among the factors being actively considered – with implications for large scale infrastructure procurement decisions. HMG’s approach will have a significant impact on companies bidding for these contracts in future.

17SEP18: SAFE AS HOUSES

HMG is launching two new housing investment funds (the Land Assembly Fund and the Small Sites Fund) via Homes England to help build 300,000 new homes a year ‘by the mid-2020s’. The funds are designed to acquire land that needs work to make it marketable and to improve infrastructure links to potential sites. The funds demonstrate the continuing importance of housing in key areas and as a political issue.

12SEP18 COUNCIL VS COMMISSION

The EU Commission and the EU Council are continuing their battle for control of the bloc’s policy agenda. Today, President Juncker delivered his State of the Union address – and his insistence that the UK cannot remain in the Single Market, or any part of it, post-Brexit is aimed squarely at next week’s Salzburg summit.

10SEP18: PLANS FOR 80% SUCCESS AT SALZBURG

EU sources have reiterated to GUIDE their concerns to support May in office and avoid the risk of an early general election in the UK. To help the UK Prime Minister, European Officials are readying statements for Salzburg that stress the 80% of the draft Withdrawal Agreement text that has already been agreed. Various EU27 governments are preparing to laud the consensus on issues like security cooperation, to buy time for further discussion on the rest of the deal.


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