Predicting politics is a bit like going ten-pin bowling with your children – if you put the barriers up, the ball ricochets around a lot and looks chaotic, but it’s possible to work out where things will end up when you know what the constraints are.
We accurately predicted how the Brexit talks would end more than 18 months ago. From autumn 2019, we consistently said to clients that the negotiations had a 60% chance of a Free Trade Agreement being struck in 2020 and ratified in 2021, with additional talks carrying on in other areas (for transparency, we also had a 20% chance of a comprehensive FTA being struck and a 20% chance of the talks ending without any FTA).
Our predictions didn’t change despite the ups and downs of the talks, and we gave clients foresight of what would happen – just like we do with domestic politics, too.
It looks like we were alone in getting Brexit spot on but we are happy to share our analysis of any issue. Please get in touch if you want to know more.