EU27 leaders have three incentives to extend the Brexit talks: first and most obviously, to free up capacity as political efforts focus on the COVID-19 crisis; second, delaying the break-off would allow greater access to UK funds when the EU27 want to pay for rebuilding the bloc's economy in 2021; and third, ongoing regulatory alignment would give the EU27 some control over how HMG positions the UK economy to compete with the bloc in what could be a pretty barren post-corona setting.
While the media consensus is that an extension to talks is inevitable, there are arguments for keeping to the current schedule. For example, a delay is just that - it puts off the reckoning rather than removes the need for it, pushing any Brexit-related disruption closer to the next UK General Election. More immediately, as any mechanic will tell you, it's easier to fix a car when it's standing still - so while the economy is in aspic for corona there could be a unique opportunity to reset the terms of trade.
