03DEC19: 24HRS OF CORBYN

Our analysis of the first 24hrs of a Corbyn government, starting with the exit poll on Thursday...

22.01 (12Dec19) Exit poll shows Labour, led by Jeremy Corbyn, likely to form a new administration.

Effect: International currency markets start to sell sterling. Short term domestic reaction likely to include interest rate increases that will affect mortgages and personal debt.

08.00 (13Dec19) Domestic stock market trading begins in earnest.

Effect: Shares sold in companies deemed at risk of nationalisation and in companies in their supply chain. Value of associated pension funds and wider economic confidence falls.

08.00-13.00 International reaction

Effect: ‘Five-Eyes’ intelligence partners review policy of sharing material with HMG.

14.00 Corbyn-led administration takes office

Effect: Political appointments made to previously non-political roles (senior Civil Service, BoE, etc).

Summary

Likely net effect at end of Day One: mortgages at higher risk of default; pension values and economic confidence decreased; international standing reduced; political independence of key institutions removed.

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