21AUG19: POLITICAL PREDICTIONS

Our weekly intelligence reports are ahead of what’s in the public domain. Here’s a small example of our method.

Weeks ago, people insisted Boris Johnson wouldn’t speak with EU leaders face-to-face – but we told clients “HMG is hoping to engineer a meeting with Merkel before the G7 summit in Biarritz”. That meeting is happening today.

From late July we noticed a pattern in the calls to Johnson to congratulate him on becoming PM. For example, Boris told the leaders of Canada, the USA and Japan that he would see them “at the G7 summit in Biarritz in August”. But the line was different with Merkel – this time the readout from No.10 said “The PM and Chancellor agreed to stay in contact”.

As Boris could be sure of seeing his German counterpart and fellow G7 leader at Biarritz, the very absence of mentioning the summit showed they wanted to meet before it – and were hiding that in plain sight.

For detailed political analysis, please email GUIDE's Chief Executive on greig@theguideconsultancy.com

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