26SEP18: THE EU AFTER BREXIT

Regardless of what shape Brexit takes, the combined GDP of the non-euro member states will fall from 38% of the eurozone GDP to barely 16% when the UK leaves. This will fundamentally change the EU’s approach to policies on macroeconomics, regulation and even issues like immigration, which will persist after March. It’s also worth noting that EU27 figures taking the hardest line in the Brexit talks are probably storing up trouble for themselves, as a workable deal would undermine their prophecies of doom, while an economic hit would feed continental populists.

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