Political Intelligence for Businesses working with Government

GUIDE delivers political and market intelligence for corporate clients. To find out more, email Chief Executive Greig Baker on greig@theguideconsultancy.com 


Going nuclear on Brexit

Senior figures across the EU27’s nuclear industry say they’re confident the UK can strike a deal with Euratom, essentially on the same terms as before, straight after Brexit. In our view, this reflects the most likely outcome of the wider talks – a series of independent agreements on some economic and security issues, acting as face-saving measures for what will basically be no-deal.

Entrepreneurial spirit

A junior Minister has called for the self-employed to face auto-enrolment in pensions schemes. There are good intentions behind the plan, but it has echoes of the NICs debacle – entrepreneurs tend to want less red tape, not more – and risks another wedge between the Conservatives and the aspiring working class voters who supported Thatcher and are, so far, proving most resistant to Corbyn.

Slippery boundary changes

Updated boundary change proposals will be published early next week. It’s unlikely to change much in Westminster, as they’re set to annoy all parties as much as each other. That said, boundary change is like an unpaid bill – the longer you leave it, the worse it gets – and it’s a reminder there are plenty of non-Brexit banana skins between now and 2022.

May throws her hat in the ring

The Prime Minister will appear on LBC's talk show with @IainDale today. It's not often a sitting PM takes to the airwaves to face listeners' questions - and it suggests May is not only trying to stay on through the next General Election, but would also want to fight a leadership challenge if the Conservatives try to remove her.

A little local difficulty

New DCLG figures show Local Authorities borrowed £6.8bn last year, with a large slice of that being used to buy commercial property. Aside from any moral questions about pushing up property prices, Councils face financial risks if they can’t find reliable commercial tenants over the next few decades (some of the loans are on 40yr terms, which is a long time for high street shopping to stay the same) and DCLG has made clear the loans are “not supported by central government”, so Councils will default if they can’t pay. Local Authorities need their property speculation to work out so they can pay for local services, so they’ve got a lot of eggs in one basket.

Lords throw spanner in Brexit works

The House of Lords’ Delegated Powers and Regulatory Reform Committee has just published a withering attack on the Government’s European Union (Withdrawal) Bill – otherwise known as the ‘Repeal Bill’ – saying “the Bill has failed to meet our expectations on all points” concerning scrutiny, transparency and control.

Among changes demanded by Peers are calls for Parliament to decide how much scrutiny is needed on every detailed element of the Bill, for MPs and Peers to have 10 days to consider each one of the 800+ Statutory Instruments the Government needs to transfer EU law onto the new UK statute book, and for the Government to legislate separately on key issues, like what powers are going to the Devolved Assemblies.

Most worryingly for the Government, the Lords have taken the highly unusual step of trying to influence scrutiny of the legislation in the Commons, which could signal the start of both Houses coordinating their efforts against every Brexit Bill the Government brings forward.

Theresa May is at risk after conference

The Conservatives tend to indulge in political regicide when they think they’re getting further away from political power. Similarly, they are most willing to attack each other over Europe. If there isn’t a breakthrough that satisfies most Conservative MPs in this round of Brexit talks and the party gathering in Manchester does not provide a convincing reply to Corbyn, there will be calls for a change.

The Fixed Term Parliament Act lets MPs choose a new administration without a General Election, so some Conservative MPs are already tempted to take the plunge.

A financial education

Universities that have taken out large scale loans from the European Investment Bank could find themselves out on a limb. HMG says the terms of the cash loans – often used to speculate on property – are “matters for the parties”. In other words, Whitehall doesn’t intend to step in if the loans go bad, either because of poor investment decisions or post-Brexit changes at the EIB.

That £1bn hasn’t been spent yet.

In a quiet answer to a Written Parliamentary Question, the Treasury confirms that “it will be for the restored Northern Ireland Executive to determine” how to spend the £1bn secured by the DUP to prop up the Conservatives.

In other words, the cash will not be released until Sinn Fein and the DUP get back together at Stormont – if they ever can. That the DUP’s money does not come without strings adds another twist in assessing how long the Government can hold its majority together in the Commons.

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Look out for this at Conservative conference…

Tory Ministers using their time with the faithful in Manchester to announce new spending commitments, either in their own bailiwick or for the Government generally, will reveal three political truths.

First, new policies will reflect what Conservatives feel must to be done to counter Corbyn. Second, they will be a measure of May’s ability to force a unified message from Cabinet and support for Hammond’s prep for the November Budget. And third, they will signal the Government’s macroeconomic approach – there’s still no money left, so new spending would keep debt reduction out of reach.

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