POLITICAL & COMMERCIAL INTELLIGENCE

We help companies affected by political change. To access our political and commercial intelligence service, email GUIDE’s Chief Executive on greig@theguideconsultancy.com


19OCT18: HMG & CYBER ATTACKS

HMG is launching GBEST – a scheme designed to boost cyber protection of public services. The scheme will see a shift in liability for breaches to private sector suppliers, with more requirements to meet guidance from the NCSC. Related details will also be published in December, with a new ‘comprehensive cyber skills strategy’.

18OCT18: PUSHING THE BOUNDARIES

If HMG decides against adding to the pre-Brexit legislative agenda, it would be unlikely to try to get parliamentary seat boundary changes through before April 2019. And in if that’s the case, the survival of the current boundary proposals would rest almost entirely on the DUP – and whether they are willing to include the reform in an updated confidence-and-supply agreement.

16OCT18: SWITZERLAND

The EU Commission is trying to use Switzerland as a test case for Brexit. It is succeeding, but not in the way it meant. Threats to limit investors’ access to Swiss financial institutions if Bern does not bow to a new ‘framework agreement’ are meant, in part, to pressure HMG by showing how the UK could be punished if it doesn’t accept the EU27’s current Brexit terms. However, the Commission’s willingness to risk sacrificing ties with Switzerland to strengthen their hand against London shows just how much they value regulatory control over the City. The Commission is trying to use a sprat to catch a mackerel.

15OCT18: GERMANY

While this week’s drama in the Brexit talks holds the UK media’s attention, Bavaria’s state election results have huge implications for future UK-EU27 relations. The disastrous showing by Bavaria’s traditional mainstream parties affects the stability of Germany’s national government, Germany’s sway in the European Council, and the upcoming race to lead the European Commission.

11OCT18: STRATEGIC SUPPLIERS

HMG has confirmed it will update its ‘playbook’ for outsourcing decisions in the first half of 2019. The Cabinet Office is reviewing the financial information from potential suppliers in a bid to reduce the risk of strategic suppliers becoming unable to deliver. The new playbook will affect all outsourcing decisions across central government.

09OCT18: THE POST-BREXIT ECONOMY

The Cabinet Office’s decision to release geospatial data held by the British Geological Survey, Coal Authority, HM Land Registry, Ordnance Survey, UK Hydrographic Office and the Valuation Office Agency might look like small beer (with an initial £5m investment) but it points towards HMG’s post-Brexit economic strategy. Public sector investment in tech, directly, indirectly and via the supply chain, will increase dramatically in the coming years – and is already shaping big procurement decisions.

08OCT18: TWO SPEECHES

As the political drama around Brexit continues to unfold this week, two women will make important statements that could shape UK politics in the months to come. One is due to come from the Secretary of State for International Development and Minister for Women and Equalities, Penny Mordaunt, and the other from DUP leader Arlene Foster. Both deserve attention.

05OCT18: PREDICTING BREXIT (AGAIN)

In early 2017, we advised FS clients that EU and UK regulators would use October of this year to make public announcements about ‘keeping the show on the road’ in the event of a no-deal Brexit. Steven Maijoor, Chair of the European Securities and Markets Authority, has started to set out the terms of a ‘transitional access deal’ if the Brexit talks fail. In other words, Brexit makes for dramatic politics, but it’s still predictable.

04OCT18: LABOUR WILL LOSE

We expect Labour to lose the next UK General Election – and it could potentially lose big. Internal splits, brand-damaging racism rows, and geographic over-concentration of support all combine against Labour. And next time, Labour MPs will not be able to beg a personal vote at no risk of Corbyn winning power, while the Tories will be moving on from Brexit and past campaigns.

01OCT18: NEW EU INCENTIVE TO MAKE BREXIT WORK

The EU Commission has identified a fresh motive to mitigate disruptions from Brexit. It believes that the potential need for extraordinary new legislative measures creates an opportunity for the Commission to secure far reaching powers. This could be just enough to temper some federalists’ urge to make an example of the UK, at least in the short term.


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